11-10-2023

Cancel Culture !

Where does that leave the BCR

"Taking an estimated range for the total costs of phase 1 of HS2 and assessing them against the estimated
total benefits (i.e. including sunk costs and excluding remediation costs) would result in a benefit-cost range significantly below 1 and represent poor Value for Money" (Bernadette Kelly) Oh dear, but never mind - if we exclude the sunk costs (around 50% of the budget) then the BCR is back at 1.2 to 1.8 (see Bleben for more)

Two down, One to go ...

Rishie bites the bullet - cancels "the rest" of HS2 -

"HS2 is the ultimate example of the old consensus. The result is a project whose costs have more than doubled, which has been repeatedly delayed and it is not scheduled to reach here in Manchester for almost two decades, and for which the economic case has massively weakened with the changes to business travel post Covid.

I say, to those who backed the project in the first place, the facts have changed. And the right thing to do when the facts change, is to have the courage to change direction.

And so, I am ending this long running saga. I am cancelling the rest of the HS2 project. And in its place, we will reinvest every single penny - £36 billion - in hundreds of new transport projects in the North and the Midlands, and across the country.

This means £36 billion of investment in the projects that will make a real difference across our nation.

As a result of the decision we are taking today, every region outside of London will receive the same or more government investment than they would have done under HS2, with quicker results.

No government has ever developed a more ambitious scheme for northern transport than our new Network North.

This is the right way to drive growth and spread opportunity across our country. To level up.

...

Given how far along construction is, we will complete the line from Birmingham to Euston. And yes, HS2 trains will still run here to Manchester. And journey times will be cut between Manchester, Birmingham, and London by 30 minutes.

...

The management of HS2 will no longer be responsible for the Euston site. There must be some accountability for the mistakes made, for the mismanagement of this project.

We will instead create a new Euston development zone, building thousands of new homes for the next generation of homeowners, new business opportunities and a station that delivers the capacity we need.

And in doing so, for the first time in the life cycle of this project – we will have cut costs. The £6.5 billion of savings that Mark and I are making will be taken from the Euston site and given to the rest of country.
...
Conference, I think our new plan is simply a better long-term investment of £36 billion of taxpayers’ money. We need to bring this willingness to make the right decision, not the easy one to every aspect of our national life.

(Daily Telegraph)

Land on axed HS2 routes will not be protected for future expansion

Why Now ?

Bond market sell-off sends UK long-term borrowing cost to 25-year high (Guardian) -
& it's funded by Govt borrowing ...

Other coverage -

• Negative environmental impact of HS2 could worsen (Guardian)
• Plans to cut HS2 platforms at Euston ‘totally unambitious’ (Yahoo)
• What does scaling back of HS2 mean for travellers (Independent)
• "Timeline of a Mistreated Megaproject " (New Civil Engineeer) BooHoo
• David Cameron accuses Rishi Sunak of making 'wrong' decision (Daily Mail) -
  'Today's announcement throws away fifteen years of cross-party consensus, sustained over six administrations, and will make it much harder to build consensus for any future long-term projects." - instead of throwing away £36bn

The excuses...

More tunnelling to placate the Nimbys (if only ...) - see this post, and the scandalous addition of £75m to the bill, by the Chiltern Tunnel extension. Where is the rest of the £1bn ?

Whither Phase 1 ??

Are we stuck with it ? The Oakervee review Stichup concluded that it only makes sense to do Phase One if continuing with the northern phases; conclusion 54 stated

"the full network is needed to realise the highest value for money economic return on the investment of HS2. Phase One as a standalone scheme does not represent value for money, nor does building Phase Two without building Phase One."

Oakervee also called for an updated business case to be published. If phase 1 alone was poor value with the BCR cooked up for Oakervee, the true case is likely to be non-existent; once this comes to light (after the election ?) then phase 1 will follow 2a & b.

What to do next ?

• Demand that the BCR for phase 1 alone be published
  
• Demand an audit of phase 1 construction to determine how much has actually been built (as opposed to how much spent & how much destroyed)

02-Oct-2023

Cancel culture

Jeremy looking like a man whose credit card bill has just arrived ... looks like the game is up for Phase 2 ?

• HS2 - the fallen icon (Prospect, 29-Sep) - " The beleaguered high-speed two is a case study in how not to do an infrastructure mega-project ". A good assessment of the options.
• Mark Bostock has been proved totally right about HS2 (Reaction, 25-Sep)  “They’ve got the alignment wrong, the most important decision in a railway. It is going to be a disaster.” Not surprising if you let an Oxford historian pick it...
• RISHI Sunak says he’s ready to take massive criticism (The Sun, so it must be true)
• Rishi Sunak will be guilty of a 'betrayal of the North', Boris Johnson warns (Daily Mail) -"Whitehall sources confirmed that the Prime Minister is all but convinced that the soaring cost of the flagship rail scheme, which began life under the last Labour government, can no longer be justified."
• Should the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 be scrapped? (Poll in The Engineer) - "Amidst mounting concerns over the spiraling cost of the HS2 project (with some reports suggesting that it could ultimately exceed £100bn) UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is now said to be considering axing the link between Birmingham and Manchester. "
• I'm ready for a fight over HS2 (Andy Street, Daily Telegraph) - “The offer to the PM is there - work with me and the private sector, grip the costs, and build Britain’s future.” - as if the private sector would touch it ...